Changing pattern of urban landscape and its impact on thermal environment of Lahore; Implications for climate change...

Rapid urbanization in Lahore has dramatically transformed land use and land cover (LULC), significantly impacting the city's thermal environment and intensifying climate change and sustainable development challenges. This study aims to examine the changes in the urban landscape of Lahore and their impact on the Urban thermal environment between 1990 and 2020. The previous studies conducted on Lahore lack the application of Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) to quantify land use and land cover, which is successfully covered in this study. This study analyzes how urban sprawl has driven LULC shifts and assesses their direct impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landsat imagery, processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE), was employed for LULC classification and LST calculation, ensuring high accuracy through multi-level change detection and a thorough accuracy assessment. Pearson's correlation was also calculated in this study to assess the impact of decreased green cover on LST. The findings highlight a substantial decrease in green cover, from 1,292.8 km² in 1990 to 754 km² in 2020, alongside a marked increase in built-up areas, expanding from 262 km² to over 550 km². Additionally, barren land showed significant growth, while water bodies diminished. The spatiotemporal analysis of LST indicates a considerable rise in high-temperature zones, specifically the industrial zones, with areas exceeding 40 °C expanding from 2 km² to 1,075 km² over the study period. A strong positive correlation between increased urbanization and rising LST, particularly in areas within a 10 to 40 km radius of the Central Business District (CBD), is evident. The overall accuracy of LULC classification surpassed 94%, with the kappa coefficient above 92%, ensuring the robustness of the results. Future research should focus on evaluating the long-term socioeconomic impacts of urban sprawl and LST increment while developing heat mitigation strategies. Recommendations include adopting sustainable urban planning practices prioritizing green infrastructure, energy-efficient building designs, and policies promoting environmental preservation. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and underscores the urgency of balancing urban growth with strategies that mitigate thermal stress, combat climate change, and foster sustainable development in Lahore.