Predicting microplastic quantities in Indonesian provincial rivers using machine learning models

Microplastic pollution has surfaced as a critical environmental concern, affecting ecosystems and human health globally. This study explored the application of several machine learning models, including the Tree algorithm, k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Networks (NN), to predict microplastic concentrations in the rivers of Indonesia's 24 provinces. By utilizing both environmental and anthropogenic data, the Tree algorithm exhibited the best performance, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.838 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.242 on unseen testing data, thereby highlighting strong predictive capability. Key variables influencing microplastic abundance included annual average temperature, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and population density. The results underscored the necessity of utilizing comprehensive datasets for effective modeling and highlighted the potential of machine learning to enhance environmental monitoring efforts. This research provides critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to address the growing issue of microplastic pollution in freshwater systems, providing a foundation for the development of more effective environmental management strategies.