Prognostic Value of Residual Circulating Tumor DNA in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a potential biomarker in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, studies on residual ctDNA in patients post-chemotherapy are limited. We assessed the prognostic value of residual ctDNA in metastatic PDAC relative to that of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9).

ctDNA analysis using a targeted next-generation sequencing panel was performed at baseline and during chemotherapy response evaluation in 53 patients. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were first evaluated based on ctDNA positivity at baseline. For further comparison, patients testing ctDNA-positive at baseline were subdivided based on residual ctDNA into ctDNA responders (no residual ctDNA post-chemotherapy) and ctDNA non-responders (residual ctDNA post-chemotherapy). Additional survival analysis was performed based on CA19-9 levels.

The baseline ctDNA detection rate was 56.6%. Although clinical outcomes tended to be poorer in patients with baseline ctDNA positivity than in those without, the differences were not significant. Residual ctDNA post-chemotherapy was associated with reduced PFS and OS. The prognosis of ctDNA responders was better than that of non-responders but did not significantly differ from that of ctDNA-negative individuals (no ctDNA both at baseline and during post-chemotherapy). Compared with ctDNA responses to chemotherapy, a ≥ 50% decrease in the CA19-9 level had less effect on both PFS and OS based on hazard ratios and significance levels. ctDNA could be monitored in half of the patients whose baseline CA19-9 levels were within the reference range.

Residual ctDNA analysis post-chemotherapy is a promising approach for predicting the clinical outcomes of patients with metastatic PDAC.