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Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming.

Fabio Leonardo Meza-Joya1, Mary Morgan-Richards1, Steven A Trewick1

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Planetary heating is causing alpine insects to shift upslope, risking genetic diversity and increasing extinction. Improved forecasting models are needed to protect these vulnerable mountain ecosystems.

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adaptive potentialalpine species and ecosystemscorrelative and hybrid niche modellingextinction debtglobal warmingrange shifts

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic planetary heating significantly disrupts alpine ecosystems globally.
  • Limited data and technical challenges hinder accurate measurement and prediction of alpine species' responses to climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects due to climate heating.
  • To identify methodological issues and influencing factors on species' range dynamics.
  • To assess the impact of range shifts on genetic variation and adaptive potential.

Main Methods:

  • A comprehensive, semi-quantitative review of empirical studies on alpine insect range shifts.
  • Analysis of case studies on range dynamics, genetic variation, and adaptive potential.
  • Evaluation of correlative niche modelling and discussion of hybrid approaches.

Main Results:

  • Most studied alpine insects are shifting to higher elevations in response to warming.
  • Upslope shifts often lead to range contractions, diminishing genetic variation and adaptive potential.
  • Endemic alpine insects, particularly those on islands, face heightened extinction risks.

Conclusions:

  • Alpine insect range shifts driven by planetary heating threaten biodiversity and adaptive capacity.
  • Current niche modelling needs enhancement to incorporate biological processes for realistic predictions.
  • Developing robust data integration frameworks is crucial for effective conservation of alpine environments.