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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 2, 2025

Assessment of Mouse Judgment Bias through an Olfactory Digging Task
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Prediction that conflicts with judgment: The low absolute likelihood effect.

Chengyao Sun1, Robyn A LeBoeuf1

  • 1Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|January 13, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People often don't predict the most likely outcome. This prediction disconnect occurs because absolute likelihood influences choices, leading to less logical strategies when the most probable event is unlikely to occur.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision-making research

Background:

  • People typically assume predictions align with likelihood judgments.
  • Existing research often overlooks the influence of absolute likelihood on predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the disconnect between likelihood judgments and actual predictions.
  • To identify factors influencing this prediction-probability gap.

Main Methods:

  • Experimental studies presenting participants with various outcome scenarios.
  • Manipulating the absolute and relative likelihood of potential events.
  • Analyzing prediction choices versus stated beliefs.

Main Results:

  • A significant disconnect exists: people often don't predict the most likely outcome.
  • Low absolute likelihood of the most probable event leads to arbitrary prediction strategies.
  • Focusing on relative likelihood reduces the prediction-probability gap.
  • Predictions for others show less disconnect than self-predictions.

Conclusions:

  • Predictions can systematically deviate from likelihood judgments.
  • Absolute likelihood plays a crucial role in prediction formation.
  • Understanding this disconnect is vital for research on judgment, prediction, and uncertainty.