[A cohort study on the association between blood pressure trajectories and variability in adolescence and subsequent...

Objective: To investigate the relationship between blood pressure trajectories and blood pressure variability with the risk of target organ damage in Chinese population from childhood to middle age. Methods: This study is a population-based, long-term follow-up cohort study. Participants who had their blood pressure measured at least 5 times in the Hanzhong Adolescent hypertension cohort from 1987 to 2023 were included in this study. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify different systolic and diastolic blood pressure trajectories, and the subjects were divided into low-increasing group, moderate-increasing group and high-increasing group according to blood pressure trajectories. Blood pressure variability was assessed using standard deviation (SD), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Target organ damage was evaluated during the final follow-up in 2023 (middle age). Logistic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between blood pressure trajectories and blood pressure variability with the risk of target organ damage. Results: A total of 2 447 subjects were included, with a median age of 48 years, of whom 1 373 were male (56.1%). Based on systolic blood pressure, 868 were in the low-increasing group, 1 238 in the moderate-increasing group, and 341 in the high-increasing group. For diastolic blood pressure, the distribution was 894, 1 263 and 290, respectively. Compared with the low-increasing group of systolic blood pressure, the moderate-increasing group (arteriosclerosis: OR=4.14, 95%CI 2.96-5.79; proteinuria: OR=2.06, 95%CI 1.38-3.07; left ventricular hypertrophy: OR=1.68, 95%CI 1.00-2.82) and high-increasing group (arterial stiffness: OR=15.44, 95%CI 10.14-23.50; proteinuria: OR=5.80, 95%CI 3.63-9.29; left ventricular hypertrophy: OR=2.93, 95%CI 1.55-5.53) had a higher risk of target organ damage (all P<0.005). The moderate-increasing group of diastolic blood pressure had a higher incidence of arterial stiffness (OR=3.72, 95%CI 2.69-5.12) and proteinuria (OR=1.67, 95%CI 1.15-2.42) than the low-increasing group (all P<0.005), while the high-increasing group had a significantly higher risk of all type of target organ damage compared to the low-increasing group (arterial stiffness: OR=10.84, 95%CI 7.08-16.61; proteinuria: OR=3.72, 95%CI 2.31-5.99; left ventricular hypertrophy: OR=2.38, 95%CI 1.23-4.59; all P<0.005). Additionally, higher systolic blood pressure variability was associated with an increased incidence of arterial stiffness (SD: OR=2.25, 95%CI 1.96-2.57; VIM: OR=1.64, 95%CI 1.45-1.86; ARV: OR=1.70, 95%CI 1.50-1.93) and proteinuria (SD: OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.44-1.89; VIM: OR=1.41, 95%CI 1.22-1.63; ARV: OR=1.45, 95%CI 1.26-1.67; all P<0.005). The results for diastolic blood pressure variability indicators were similar to those for systolic blood pressure. Conclusion: Early-life blood pressure trajectories are predictive of target organ damage risk in middle age. Higher blood pressure variability is related to an increased risk of arterial stiffness and proteinuria, but was less associated with left ventricular hypertrophy. Focusing on the risk of high blood pressure early in life can help prevent the occurrence of target organ damage in middle age.