A Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis: Case Studies from the Marmara Region

Area of Science:

• Geotechnical Engineering
• Seismology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Earthquake-induced soil liquefaction presents a major threat to infrastructure globally.
• Current regional assessments often rely on deterministic methods, limiting their predictive power.
• There is a need for accessible and robust probabilistic methods for liquefaction hazard analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and present a novel Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) framework.
• To enable accurate seismic risk assessment using accessible, publicly available data.
• To address uncertainties in earthquake and soil parameters through distribution functions.

Main Methods:

• Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations for probabilistic analysis.
• Assessment of liquefaction potential using Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) and Liquefaction Severity (LS).
• Integration of a time-dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) model.

Main Results:

• Developed a flexible PLHA framework implemented in MATLAB.
• Generated probabilistic liquefaction hazard maps for Adapazari, Türkiye, and the Marmara region.
• Validated results against observed liquefaction data from the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake.

Conclusions:

• The PLHA framework offers a robust tool for predicting seismic liquefaction hazards.
• The methodology is applicable in resource-constrained settings, aiding risk mitigation planning.
• Findings highlight the importance of probabilistic approaches over traditional deterministic methods for seismic hazard assessment.