Exploring environmental risk in soils: Leveraging open data for non-sampling assessment?

Soil contamination by heavy metals (HM) is a critical area of research. Traditional methods involving sample collection and lab analysis are effective but costly and time-consuming. This study explores whether geostatistical analysis with GIS and open data can provide a faster, more precise, and cost-effective alternative for HM contamination assessment without extensive sampling. Concentrations of nine HMs (Cu, Pb, Ni, Co, Mn, As, Cd, Sb, Cr) were analysed from 498 soil samples collected in two mining areas in Portugal: the Panasqueira and Aljustrel mines. Corresponding data were extracted from the Lucas TOPSOIL 1 km raster maps. Several contamination indices, Contamination Factor (Cf), Modified Contamination Degree (mCd), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), Nemerow Pollution Index (Pn), Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI), and Pollution Load Index (PLI) were calculated for both datasets. A confusion matrix was used to evaluate the percentage of correct classifications, while a concordance analysis assessed the alignment of accurately classified points between the two data sources. In the soil samples, very high contamination levels for As were observed in 42% of the samples, according to the Cf, with high levels for Sb found in approximately 30% of the samples. The mCd revealed that approximately 11% of soil samples exhibited very high levels of contamination, while the Pn indicated that 78.9% of the soil samples fell within the seriously polluted domain. Similar contamination trends were observed for the other indices. In contrast, the results for the LUCAS points showed significant discrepancies. No high contamination levels were found for any metal. The misclassification rates for mCd, Pn, PERI, and PLI were 84.25%, 97.55%, 95%, and 82%, respectively, when compared to the field data. This study concludes that while open data raster maps offer rapid overviews, they fall short of providing the detailed precision required for reliable contamination assessments. The significant misclassification rates observed highlight the limitations of relying solely on these tools for critical environmental decisions. Consequently, traditional sampling and laboratory analysis remain indispensable for accurate risk assessments of HM contamination, ensuring a more reliable foundation for decision-making and environmental management.