Talent Identification: Time to Move Forward on Estimation of Potentials? Proposed Explanations and Promising Methods

The scientific literature on talent identification is extensive, with significant advancements made over the past 30 years. However, as with any field, the translation of research into practice and its impact on the field have been slower than anticipated. Indeed, recent findings highlight a pervasive relative age effect, the effects of maturation being often overlooked, disparate populations between young and senior performers, and a necessity to embrace a holistic approach. However, simple elements can be implemented to avoid some of these known biases. This review synthesizes recent advancements, critically examines key elements to consider in talent identification, and proposes promising avenues for enhancement. These include (1) understanding and illustrating early performance influences, (2) implementing individualized performance trajectory models, (3) applying corrective adjustments based on relative, biological, and training age, and (4) improving estimation of potentials through a holistic approach that integrates "life pathways". In light of these necessary improvements, it seems opportune to propose a semantic shift to generate a change in both conceptual and operational paradigms. The proposed terminology of "estimation of potential" is based on a semantic and mathematical definition, which operationalizes its conceptualization. This study suggests that understanding the trajectories of transitions from youth to senior categories in each sport, coupled with a holistic approach centered on individual performance progressions across the three ages, would be a possible path toward estimating potential.