State of the art modelling for the Black Sea ecosystem to support European policies

The Black Sea is affected by numerous anthropogenic pressures, such as eutrophication and pollution through coastal and river discharges, fisheries overexploitation, species invasions, and the impacts of climate change. Growing concerns regarding the cumulative effects of these pressures have necessitated the need for an ecosystem approach to assessing the state of this basin. In recent years, the European Commission-JRC has developed a scientific and modelling tool, the Blue2 Modelling Framework with the aim of exploring the consequences of EU management and policy options on marine ecosystems. This framework has been designed to provide information on specific ecological indicators set out in EU legislation. Here, we present the Blue2 framework for the Black Sea ecosystem. The model represented the mid-1990s' conditions in the Black Sea ecosystem including trophic levels from primary producers to marine mammals and sea birds. The model simulations covered a period from 1995-2021. The results showed that gulls & cormorant seabirds, sprat, horse mackerel and mugilidae had structuring role in the food web. Fishing fleets had indirect negative impacts on marine mammals in addition to commercially exploited species. Analysis of the ecosystem indicators confirmed the overall temporal degradation of the Black Sea when comparing results with other Black Sea models, whilst the comparison with the Mediterranean Sea allowed us to identify comparable indicators between similar model structures. The spatial/temporal model successfully simulated the overall ongoing declining dynamics of the Black Sea ecosystem as the biomasses of the majority of the functional groups had significant observed decreasing trends during the simulation period. This model is the first attempt to represent the historical and current state of the Black Sea ecosystem spatially and temporally, serving as a reference baseline for evaluating policy scenarios and assisting policy makers in the evaluation of potential environmental impacts of management options.