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Uncertainty analysis in river quality management considering failure probability: controllable and uncontrollable
Mohsen Dehghani Darmian1, Britta Schmalz1
1Chair of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management, Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany.
Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
|January 16, 2025
Summary
This study introduces a new method to assess river quality protection tools using failure probability. It highlights flow velocity
Area of Science:
- Environmental Engineering
- Water Resource Management
- Computational Fluid Dynamics
Background:
- River quality management faces challenges from pollutant uncertainties.
- Assessing the effectiveness of protection tools requires reliability analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate river quality protection tools considering failure probability (Pf).
- To develop a new equation for assimilation capacity using Genetic Programming (GP).
- To analyze the impact of flow velocity and sustainable protection tools on river water quality.
Main Methods:
- Integration of a finite volume approach (symmetric exponential function - SEF) with Monte Carlo simulations.
- Application of the Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm for assimilation capacity calculation.
- Simulation of river water quality under controllable and uncontrollable pollutant scenarios.
Main Results:
- A novel GP-based equation for assimilation capacity, incorporating failure probability, was developed.
- Flow velocity critically influences river assimilation capacity, with higher velocities potentially leading to hazardous states.
- Detention time is a more consistent and effective tool than dilution flow for managing uncontrollable pollutants across various flow rates.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a robust framework for river quality management by integrating numerical methods, reliability analysis, and soft computing.
- Detention time and the ratio of detention time to initial pollution contact duration are identified as vital indices for safeguarding river ecosystems.
- Findings offer valuable insights for sustainable river management strategies to protect both human and animal populations.
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