Decarceration and COVID-19 infections in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facilities: a simulation...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities experienced high COVID-19 infection and mortality rates during the pandemic.
• Understanding the impact of decarceration on disease transmission within these facilities is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify potential COVID-19 infections averted through various decarceration strategies in ICE facilities.
• To model SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics under different population reduction scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Developed stochastic simulation models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ICE facilities.
• Calibrated models using public case data and population censuses (May-December 2020).
• Evaluated decarceration impacts from 10% to 90%, considering external infection risks.

Main Results:

• Without decarceration, infection rates were 5.05 per 1000 person-days.
• Infection rates declined linearly or faster with increasing decarceration levels.
• Even at 90% decarceration, infection rates for remaining individuals were comparable to or higher than free-living populations.

Conclusions:

• Decarceration strategies can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections in ICE facilities.
• The effectiveness of decarceration depends on contact reduction within facilities.
• Incarceration poses significant infection risks, exacerbating other health harms.