A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw.

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Social science
• Risk analysis

Background:

• Permafrost thaw is a growing concern in Arctic regions.
• Understanding its impacts is critical for adaptation and policy.
• Risks are complex, involving both natural processes and societal consequences.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comparative risk analysis of permafrost thaw across four Arctic regions.
• To integrate scientific and local stakeholder knowledge on permafrost thaw risks.
• To identify key hazards and their societal implications.

Main Methods:

• Inter- and transdisciplinary research approach.
• Multidirectional knowledge exchange between scientists and local stakeholders.
• Thematic network analysis to synthesize risk perceptions and identify hazards.

Main Results:

• Identified five key hazards of permafrost thaw: infrastructure failure, disrupted mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, food security challenges, and exposure to diseases and contaminants.
• Characterized risks as dynamic socionatural phenomena.
• Highlighted the importance of integrating diverse knowledge systems.

Conclusions:

• Permafrost thaw poses multifaceted risks requiring integrated adaptation strategies.
• Comparative, transdisciplinary approaches are essential for understanding and managing these risks.
• Addressing permafrost thaw impacts is vital for Arctic environmental and livelihood resilience.