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Updated: Jun 1, 2025

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The effects of warming on loggerhead turtle nesting counts.

Diana Sousa-Guedes1,2,3, João C Campos1, Filipa Bessa4

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|January 21, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Global warming may be increasing loggerhead sea turtle nesting numbers in some regions due to temperature-dependent sex determination. However, continued warming could lead to long-term population declines, highlighting the complex effects of climate change on marine turtles.

Keywords:
climate changeenvironmental changesland surface temperaturemarine turtlesnesting groundssex ratiotemperature‐dependent sex determinationtrend analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Marine Biology
  • Climate Change Ecology
  • Conservation Science

Background:

  • Marine turtle nesting trends exhibit regional variations attributed to environmental and anthropogenic factors.
  • Sea turtle sex determination is temperature-dependent, influencing hatchling sex ratios and potentially nesting numbers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between past temperature fluctuations and loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting trends.
  • To determine if warmer nesting beaches are linked to increased nesting due to higher female production.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of nest counts from 35 global rookeries (1979-2023).
  • Compilation and analysis of air (CHELSA) and land surface (MODIS) temperature data.
  • Application of generalized additive models and Mann-Kendall trend tests.
  • Correlation of nest counts with lagged air temperature variables.

Main Results:

  • Significant warming observed at 33 of 35 nesting locations.
  • Significant increases in nest counts recorded at 23 locations experiencing warming.
  • Rising temperatures appear to boost nesting numbers in the Caribbean, Atlantic, and Mediterranean regions.

Conclusions:

  • Short-term warming effects may be driving the observed global increase in sea turtle nest counts.
  • Regional variability in temperature trends influences species' responses to climate change.
  • Continued warming poses a risk of long-term population declines, necessitating further research on sex ratios and feminization.