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Seasonal and periodic patterns in US COVID-19 mortality using the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap.
Edward L Valachovic1, Ekaterina Shishova1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, Rensselaer, New York, United States of America.
Plos One
|January 22, 2025
Summary
Investigating COVID-19 mortality seasonality using a novel bootstrap method revealed significant seasonal patterns and additional weekly components. This approach offers more accurate predictions for future public health preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Time Series Analysis
Background:
- Understanding the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is critical for public health preparedness.
- Previous methods for analyzing periodic components in time series data, like COVID-19 mortality, faced challenges with interference and accuracy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the seasonality and other periodically correlated components within US COVID-19 mortality data.
- To introduce and evaluate a novel bootstrap approach, the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap, for analyzing periodic time series characteristics.
Main Methods:
- Developed and applied the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VPBB) method.
- VPBB filters time series to reduce interference before bootstrapping, preserving correlation structures.
- Compared VPBB against alternative bootstrapping methods for analyzing US COVID-19 mortality data.
Main Results:
- Both VPBB and alternative methods identified a significant seasonal component in COVID-19 mortality.
- VPBB produced smaller confidence intervals compared to other methods.
- VPBB uniquely identified significant components at the second through fifth harmonics and a weekly component.
Conclusions:
- The Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap is a more accurate and statistically powerful method for estimating periodic components in time series data.
- Evidence supports the presence of a significant seasonal pattern and additional periodic components in US COVID-19 mortality.
- Findings aid in predicting and preparing for future COVID-19 waves and inform public health strategies.
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