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The Current and Future Burden of Long COVID in the United States
Sarah M Bartsch1,2,3, Kevin L Chin1,2,3, Ulrich Strych4
1Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research, City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, USA.
Background:
Long coronavirus disease (COVID), which affects an estimated 44.69-48.04 million people in the United States, is an ongoing public health concern that will persist as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread.
Methods:
We developed a computational simulation model representing the clinical course, health effects, and associated costs of a person with long COVID.
Results:
Simulations show that the average total cost of a long COVID case can range from $5084-$11 646 (assuming symptoms only last 1 year) with 92.5%-95.2% of these costs being productivity losses. Therefore, the current number of long COVID cases could cost society at least $2.01-$6.56 billion, employers at least $1.99-$6.49 billion in productivity losses, and third-party payers $21.0-$68.5 million annually (6%-20% probability of developing long COVID). These cases would accrue 35 808-121 259 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost and 13 484-45 468 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and would rise as COVID-19 incidence increases.
Conclusions:
The current health and economic burden of long COVID may already exceed that of a number of other chronic diseases and will continue to grow each year as COVID-19 cases increase. This could be a significant drain on businesses, third-party payers, the healthcare system, and society.
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