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Evolution of parasite transmission dispersion
Hannelore MacDonald1, Sebastian Bonhoeffer1, Roland Regoes1
1Institute for Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich, 8005 Zürich, Switzerland.
Royal Society Open Science
|January 23, 2025
Summary
Parasite adaptation to diverse host populations drives high transmission dispersion in epidemics. This adaptation can maintain high transmission even when infections become endemic, especially if virulence varies among hosts.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Transmission of infectious diseases is often overdispersed, with a small subset of infected individuals causing a majority of new infections.
- Host heterogeneity, such as variable viral loads (e.g., SARS-CoV-2), is a known driver of transmission overdispersion.
- The role of parasite adaptation in exacerbating transmission dispersion in heterogeneous host populations remains less understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether parasite adaptation to heterogeneous host populations can be an emergent property contributing to increased transmission dispersion.
- To explore the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of host-parasite systems under varying host heterogeneity.
- To provide a framework for understanding how parasite adaptation influences transmission patterns in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.
Main Methods:
- Development of a mathematical model based on the Price equation framework.
- The model integrates epidemiological dynamics (disease spread) with evolutionary dynamics (parasite adaptation).
- Analysis of a general host-parasite system to capture core principles applicable across various pathogens.
Main Results:
- Parasite adaptation to heterogeneous host populations significantly drives high transmission dispersion during the early stages of epidemics.
- Adaptation can sustain increased transmission dispersion at endemic equilibria, particularly when host virulence varies.
- The study demonstrates that adaptation can amplify dispersion by specializing on highly infectious hosts, reducing transmission from less infectious ones.
Conclusions:
- Parasite adaptation is a key factor that can emerge and drive substantial transmission overdispersion in heterogeneous host populations.
- This adaptive process can influence disease dynamics from initial outbreaks through to endemic states.
- The findings offer a predictive framework for understanding transmission patterns of novel and re-emerging infectious diseases.
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