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Airspace closures due to reentering space objects.

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Uncontrolled rocket body reentries pose a growing collision risk to aircraft. Authorities face a dilemma between airspace closure for safety and economic impacts from flight delays.

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Area of Science:

  • Space Debris
  • Aviation Safety
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Uncontrolled space object reentries present a collision risk to airborne aircraft.
  • This risk is escalating due to increased space launches and air traffic.
  • National authorities may preemptively close airspace during reentry events, impacting operations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the probability of rocket body reentry impacting airspace across varying air traffic densities.
  • To analyze the safety and economic trade-offs faced by authorities managing reentry risks.

Main Methods:

  • Probabilistic analysis of rocket body reentry events over different airspace densities.
  • Assessment of collision risk based on air traffic levels.

Main Results:

  • High-density regions near airports have a 0.8% annual chance of reentry impact.
  • Busy airspace regions like the northeastern US or northern Europe face up to a 26% annual risk.
  • Collision risk and economic impact of airspace closure increase with air traffic density.

Conclusions:

  • National authorities face a dilemma managing reentry risks, balancing safety against economic consequences.
  • Controlled reentries into oceans could mitigate risks, but over 2300 rocket bodies necessitate managing uncontrolled reentries for decades.