Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Computational modeling
• Public health

Background:

• Airborne disease transmission is influenced by social system mobility and contacts.
• Mobility restrictions were key non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, but their quantitative impact remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between mobility and epidemic contagion.
• To analyze the effectiveness of mobility restrictions and incidence-triggered interventions.
• To develop a mitigation framework for epidemic control.

Main Methods:

• An agent-based model was developed to simulate the interaction between mobility and contacts.
• The model explored critical mobility thresholds and the effects of various intervention policies.
• Societal well-being, economic impact, and population health were considered.

Main Results:

• A critical mobility level was identified, above which major outbreaks emerge.
• Mobility restrictions and incidence-triggered closures can lead to oscillatory epidemic dynamics with recurrent waves.
• Interventions impact societal well-being, the economy, and population health.

Conclusions:

• Mobility plays a critical role in epidemic dynamics.
• A novel mitigation framework can control epidemic incidence and oscillations by managing mobility.
• This framework can prevent healthcare system saturation during outbreaks.