A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests

Forecasting emergent pest spread is paramount to mitigating their impacts. For host-specialized pests, epidemiological models of spread through a single host population are well developed. However, most pests attack multiple host species; the challenge is predicting which communities are most vulnerable to infestation. Here, we develop a phylogenetically-informed approach to predict establishment of emergent multi-host pests across heterogeneous landscapes. We model a beetle-pathogen symbiotic complex on trees, introduced from Southeast Asia to California. The phyloEpi model for likelihood of establishment was predicted from the phylogenetic composition of woody species in the invaded community and the influence of temperature on beetle reproduction. Plant communities dominated by close relatives of known epidemiologically critical hosts were four times more likely to become infested than communities with more distantly related species. Where microclimate favored beetle reproduction, pest establishment was greater than expected based only on species composition. We applied this phyloEpi model to predict infestation risk in California using weather data and complete tree inventories from 9262 1-km² grids in 170 cities. Regions in the state predicted with low likelihood of infestation were confirmed by independent monitoring. Analysts can adapt these phylogenetic ecology tools to predict spread of any multi-host pest in novel habitats.