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Statistical Analysis and Forecasts of Performance Indicators in the Romanian Healthcare System
Cristian Ovidiu Drăgan1, Laurențiu Stelian Mihai1, Ana-Maria Camelia Popescu1
1Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Dolj, Romania.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 25, 2025
Summary
This study forecasts key healthcare performance indicators (KPIs) for a Romanian hospital using ARIMA models. Results show seasonal impacts on average length of stay and bed occupancy, with costs rising due to inflation.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare Management
- Health Economics
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Healthcare systems globally face performance optimization challenges, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- This study analyzes key performance indicators (KPIs) at the County Emergency Clinical Hospital in Craiova, Romania.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze and forecast critical healthcare KPIs, including average length of stay (ALoS), bed occupancy rate (BOR), number of cases (NC), case mix index (CMI), and average cost per hospitalization (ACH).
- To provide insights into the dynamics and future trends of these indicators for proactive hospital management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized statistical analyses on quarterly data from 2010 to 2023.
- Employed ARIMA models for forecasting KPIs, with model selection based on Akaike and Schwarz criteria.
- Validated models using stationarity, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity tests.
Main Results:
- ALoS and BOR exhibit seasonality, influenced by colder months, with ALoS projected to stabilize around five days and BOR between 46-52% by 2025.
- Number of cases (NC) show a post-pandemic recovery below pre-pandemic levels; Case Mix Index (CMI) is expected to stabilize around 1.54.
- Average Cost per Hospitalization (ACH) demonstrated significant growth, especially in Q4, driven by inflation and seasonal costs, projected to exceed RON 3000 by 2025.
Conclusions:
- ARIMA models are effective for forecasting healthcare KPIs, aiding proactive resource planning and decision-making.
- Seasonality and economic factors significantly impact hospital operations, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies.
- Findings offer valuable insights for enhancing hospital efficiency and navigating post-pandemic challenges.
Keywords:
ARIMACOVID-19KPIforecasthealthcarehealthcare systemhospital performanceperformancestatistical analysisMore Related Videos
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