FSW Optimization: Prediction Using Polynomial Regression and Optimization with Hill-Climbing Method

This study presents the optimization of the friction stir welding (FSW) process using polynomial regression to predict the maximum tensile load (MTL) of welded joints. The experimental design included varying spindle speeds from 600 to 2200 rpm and welding speeds from 100 to 350 mm/min over 28 experimental points. The resulting MTL values ranged from 1912 to 15,336 N. A fifth-degree polynomial regression model was developed to fit the experimental data. Diagnostic tests, including the Shapiro-Wilk test and kurtosis analysis, indicated a non-normal distribution of the MTL data. Model validation showed that fifth-degree polynomial regression provided a robust fit with high fitted and predicted R² values, indicating strong predictive power. Hill-climbing optimization was used to fine-tune the welding parameters, identifying an optimal spindle speed of 1100 rpm and a welding speed of 332 mm/min, which was predicted to achieve an MTL of 16,852 N. Response surface analysis confirmed the effectiveness of the identified parameters and demonstrated their significant influence on the MTL. These results suggest that the applied polynomial regression model and optimization approach are effective tools for improving the performance and reliability of the FSW process.