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Updated: Jun 17, 2026
Murine Kidney Transplant Technique
Published on: October 20, 2015
Modeling BK Virus Infection in Renal Transplant Recipients
Nicholas Myers1, Dana Droz1, Bruce W Rogers2,3
1Center for Research in Scientific Computation, Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
Abstract:
Kidney transplant recipients require a lifelong protocol of immunosuppressive therapy to prevent graft rejection. However, these same medications leave them susceptible to opportunistic infections. One pathogen of particular concern is human polyomavirus 1, also known as BK virus (BKPyV). This virus attacks kidney tubule epithelial cells and is a direct threat to the health of the graft. Current standard of care in BK virus-infected transplant recipients is reduction in immunosuppressant therapy, to allow the patient's immune system to control the virus. This requires a delicate balance; immune suppression must be strong enough to prevent rejection, yet weak enough to allow viral clearance. We seek to model viral and immune dynamics with the ultimate goal of applying optimal control methods to this problem. In this paper, we begin with a previously published model and make simplifying assumptions that reduce the number of parameters from 20 to 14. We calibrate our model using newly available patient data and a detailed sensitivity analysis. Numerical results for multiple patients are given to show that the newer model reflects observed dynamics well.
Insights
Kidney transplant patients are at risk from BK virus (BKPyV) due to immunosuppression. This study models viral and immune dynamics to optimize treatment, balancing graft protection and viral clearance.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Virology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Kidney transplant recipients require lifelong immunosuppression to prevent graft rejection.
- Immunosuppression increases susceptibility to opportunistic infections, notably BK polyomavirus (BKPyV).
- BKPyV infection targets kidney tubule epithelial cells, posing a significant threat to graft survival.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a mathematical model for viral and immune dynamics in BKPyV-infected kidney transplant recipients.
- To simplify an existing model by reducing parameters for improved applicability.
- To explore the application of optimal control methods for managing BKPyV infection.
Main Methods:
- Simplified a previously published mathematical model, reducing parameters from 20 to 14.
- Calibrated the simplified model using newly available patient data.
- Performed a detailed sensitivity analysis to validate model parameters.
Main Results:
- The refined model accurately reflects observed viral and immune dynamics in multiple BKPyV-infected patients.
- The simplified model demonstrates good predictive capability for patient outcomes.
- Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model parameters.
Conclusions:
- The simplified mathematical model provides a valuable tool for understanding BKPyV dynamics in kidney transplant recipients.
- This model can inform the development of optimal control strategies for managing immunosuppression and viral load.
- Further research can apply optimal control theory to personalize treatment and improve graft survival rates.
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