Development of Attention-based Prediction Models for All-cause Mortality, Home Care Need, and Nursing Home Admission...

Predicting health-related outcomes can help with proactive healthcare planning and resource management. This is especially important on the older population, an age group growing in the coming decades. Considering longitudinal rather than cross-sectional information from primary care electronic health records (EHRs) can contribute to more informed predictions. In this work, we developed prediction models using longitudinal EHRs to inform resource allocation. In this study, we developed deep-learning-based prognostic models to predict 1-year and 5-year all-cause mortality, nursing home admission, and home care need in people over 65 years old using all the longitudinal information from EHRs. The models included attention mechanisms to increase their transparency. EHRs were drawn from SIDIAP (primary care, Catalonia (Spain)) from 2010-2019. Performance on the test set was compared to that from baseline models using cross-sectional one-year history only. Data from 1,456,052 individuals over 65 years old were considered. Cohen's kappa obtained using longitudinal data was 3.4-fold (1-year all-cause mortality), 10.3-fold (5-year all-cause mortality), 1.1-fold (5-year nursing home admission), and 1.2-fold (5-year home care need) higher than that obtained by the one-year history baseline models. Our models performed better than those not considering longitudinal data, especially when predicting further into the future. However, nursing home admission and home care need in the long term were harder to predict, suggesting their dependence on more abrupt changes. The attention maps helped to understand the predictions, enhancing model transparency. These prediction models can contribute to improve resource allocation in the general population of aging adults.