A new simple chronic heart failure prognostic index based on five general parameters.

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Clinical Medicine
• Biomarker Research

Background:

• Prognostic prediction in heart failure (HF) is complex, with no single marker proving consistently effective.
• Existing methods often lack comprehensive predictive power for patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel prognostic index for heart failure (HF) using readily available clinical parameters.
• To assess if this new index, the BASIC index, improves risk stratification compared to B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) alone.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 1065 adult outpatients with chronic systolic dysfunction heart failure.
• Calculation of the BASIC index: (BNP * age^2) / (serum sodium * hemoglobin * eGFR).
• Evaluation of the index's association with all-cause mortality using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analysis.

Main Results:

• The BASIC index demonstrated superior prognostic performance (AUC 0.73) compared to BNP alone (AUC 0.69) in predicting all-cause mortality.
• A BASIC index cut-off of 9.3 identified patients with significantly higher mortality risk.
• Patients with a BASIC index > 9.3 had a multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of 2.70 for all-cause mortality.

Conclusions:

• The BASIC index, incorporating BNP, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), significantly enhances prognostic prediction in heart failure.
• A BASIC index above 9.3 identifies patients with a nearly 3-fold increased risk of death, offering a valuable tool for risk stratification.