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  11. Modeling Effects Of Climate Change On Crop Phenology And Yield Of Wheat-maize Cropping System And Exploring Sustainable Solutions

Modeling effects of climate change on crop phenology and yield of wheat-maize cropping system and exploring sustainable solutions

Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary1,2,3, Hong Li1, Xuwei Pan1

  • 1Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China.

Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture
|January 27, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change threatens semi-arid wheat-maize systems. Optimized fertilization and plant density can significantly boost crop yields, ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Change Adaptation
  • Agronomy

Background:

  • Semi-arid wheat-maize cropping systems face significant threats from projected climate change.
  • These changes pose risks to global food security, environmental sustainability, and socioeconomic development.
  • Optimized management practices are crucial for mitigating these impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To calibrate and validate the APSIM model for wheat-maize cropping systems.
  • To simulate the effects of climate change on crop phenology and yield.
  • To assess the potential of optimized fertilization and plant density to enhance crop productivity.

Main Methods:

  • The APSIM model was calibrated and validated using 5-year field data (2017/2018-2022).
  • Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics like R-squared and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency.
Keywords:
APSIMcrop phenologyfertilization levelsmaize yield

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  • Simulations were conducted under various climate change scenarios for near and far future.

    • Main Results:

    • Climate change is projected to reduce wheat, spring maize, and autumn maize yields by 11-20% in the near to far future.
    • Optimized fertilization (N: 60-120 kg ha⁻¹, P: 40-80 kg ha⁻¹) and plant density (Wheat: 100-150 plants m⁻², Maize: 8-13 plants m⁻²) can increase yields by 19-55%.
    • Crop phenology, including emergence, anthesis, and maturity, is expected to advance under future climate scenarios.

    Conclusions:

    • Implementing optimized fertilization and plant density is vital for mitigating climate change impacts on wheat-maize systems.
    • These strategies are essential for safeguarding food security and maintaining agricultural productivity.
    • The study highlights the need for adaptive management in semi-arid agricultural regions.
    plant density
    wheat yield