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Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model.

Madeleine Fol1, Bruno Tremblay1,2, Stephanie Pfirman3

  • 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC Canada.

Communications Earth & Environment
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The Last Ice Area may disappear soon after the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free. This critical Arctic habitat loss threatens ice-obligate species.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Arctic Oceanography
  • Sea Ice Dynamics

Background:

  • The Last Ice Area is projected to be the final Arctic region with sea ice.
  • Previous climate models lacked resolution to accurately simulate ice export.
  • Understanding Last Ice Area persistence is crucial for Arctic ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the future of the Last Ice Area using high-resolution climate simulations.
  • To investigate the impact of sea ice export through Arctic waterways.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the high-resolution Community Earth System Model.
  • Simulated climate projections under a high-end forcing scenario.
  • Focused on resolving sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait.

Main Results:

  • Under a high-end scenario, Last Ice Area sea ice thins and becomes mobile.
  • Significant southward sea ice export occurs from the Last Ice Area.
  • Last Ice Area sea ice could vanish approximately one decade after the central Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free.

Conclusions:

  • High-resolution models reveal greater vulnerability of the Last Ice Area than previously thought.
  • Sea ice export through narrow straits significantly impacts Last Ice Area persistence.
  • The potential loss of the Last Ice Area has severe implications for ice-dependent species.