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Global water gaps under future warming levels
Lorenzo Rosa1, Matteo Sangiorgio2
1Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA. lrosa@carnegiescience.edu.
Nature Communications
|January 30, 2025
Summary
Climate change significantly widens water gaps, increasing scarcity. Future warming will exacerbate this, necessitating urgent climate mitigation and robust water management strategies to address global water resource stress.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
Background:
- Climate change impacts water resources globally.
- Understanding water gaps (unsustainable water use) is key for adaptation.
- Quantifying water scarcity under different warming scenarios is critical.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify current and future global water gaps.
- To assess the impact of 1.5°C and 3°C warming scenarios on water scarcity.
- To highlight regional disparities in water gap projections.
Main Methods:
- Multi-model analysis of water demand and supply.
- Incorporation of two distinct future warming scenarios (1.5°C and 3°C).
- Quantification of baseline and projected water gaps in km³/yr.
Main Results:
- Baseline global water gap is 457.9 km³/yr.
- Projected increases in water gaps of 5.8% (1.5°C) and 14.7% (3°C).
- Significant regional differences and model variability observed in projections.
Conclusions:
- Climate change intensifies water scarcity, with higher warming levels causing greater impacts.
- Unequal adaptation needs exist across countries and basins.
- Urgent climate mitigation and robust water management are essential to combat escalating water scarcity.
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