Predictors of developing severe COVID-19 among hospitalized patients: a retrospective study

COVID-19 poses a significant threat to global public health. As the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies among individuals, elucidating risk factors for severe COVID-19 is important for predicting and preventing illness progression, as well as lowering case fatality rates. This work aimed to explore risk factors for developing severe COVID-19 to enhance the quality of care provided to patients and to prevent complications.

A retrospective study was conducted in Saudi Arabia's eastern province, including all COVID-19 patients aged 18 years or older who were hospitalized at Prince Saud Bin Jalawi Hospital in July 2020. Comparative tests as well as both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for developing severe COVID-19 and poor outcomes.

Based on the comparative statistical tests patients with severe COVID-19 were statistically significantly associated with older age and had higher respiratory rate, longer hospital stay, and higher prevalence of diabetes than non-severe cases. They also exhibited statistically significant association with high levels of potassium, urea, creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). The univariate analysis shows that having diabetes, having high severe acute respiratory infection chest X-ray scores, old age, prolong hospitalization, high potassium and lactate dehydrogenase, as well as using insulin, heparin, corticosteroids, favipiravir or azithromycin were all statistically significant associated with severe COVID-19. However, after adjustments in the multivariate analysis, the sole predictor was serum LDH (p = 0.002; OR 1.005; 95% CI 1.002-1.009). In addition, severe COVID-19 patients had higher odds of being prescribed azithromycin than non-severe patients (p = 0.001; OR 13.725; 95% CI 3.620-52.043). Regarding the outcomes, the median hospital stay duration was statistically significantly associated with death, intensive care unit admission (ICU), and mechanical ventilation. On the other hand, using insulin, azithromycin, beta-agonists, corticosteroids, or favipiravir were statistically significantly associated with reduced mortality, ICU admission, and need of mechanical ventilation.

This study sheds light on numerous parameters that may be utilized to construct a prediction model for evaluating the risk of severe COVID-19. However, no protective factors were included in this prediction model.