Anopheles stephensi larval habitat superproductivity and its relevance for larval source management in Africa

The invasion of Africa by Anopheles stephensi poses a significant threat to malaria elimination. As An. stephensi exploits a wide array of urban artificial larval habitats, it may be less impacted by rainfall variability compared to other native Anopheles species. We empirically investigated this assumption by quantifying the seasonal transition of an established population from eastern Ethiopia between rainy and dry periods. Monthly larval surveys generated evidence of significant heterogeneity between seasons in the type of habitat and their productivity. As the dry season progressed, An. stephensi productivity significantly concentrated in large water reservoirs (for drinking and construction) to a point in which up to 77% of all larvae originated from 23% of the sites. Such superproductive sites were primarily water cisterns used for residential or construction purposes. A two-patch metapopulation model of An. stephensi linked to rainfall data recreated the seasonal larval dynamics observed in the field and predicted that larval control targeted on superproducer water reservoirs, when implemented at coverages higher than 60%, may lead to An. stephensi elimination. Our findings highlight the role of environmental variability in regulating An. stephensi populations and open the window for the deployment of control strategies that exploit major mosquito population bottlenecks.