Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models

Marine net primary production supports critical ecosystem services and the carbon cycle. However, the lack of consensus in the direction and magnitude of projected change in net primary production from models undermines efforts to assess climate impacts on marine ecosystems with confidence. Here we use contemporary remote sensing net primary production trends (1998-2023) from six remote sensing algorithms to discriminate amongst fifteen divergent model projections. A model ranking scheme, based on the similarity of linear responses of net primary production to changes in sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a and the mixed layer, finds that future declines in net primary production are more likely than presently predicted. Even the best ranking models still underestimate the sensitivity of declines in net primary production to ocean warming, suggesting shortcomings remain. Reproducing this greater temperature sensitivity may lead to even larger declines in future net primary production than presently considered for impact assessment.