Novel prognostic score for colorectal necrosis requiring emergency surgery

Colorectal necrosis is a serious condition associated with high morbidity and mortality. We investigated the clinical features and prognostic factors of patients who underwent emergency surgery for colorectal necrosis.

Data from 40 patients who underwent surgery for colorectal necrosis were reviewed retrospectively to assess the various clinical and operative factors and risk factors for hospital mortality.

The Kaplan-Meier method showed that total colectomy, a platelet count < 100,000/μL, a prothrombin time-international normalized ratio ≥ 1.5, creatine kinase ≥ 566 U/L, lactate ≥ 22.8 mg/dL, base excess < - 12 mmol/L, platelet-lymphocyte ratio < 321, and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio < 1.0 were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analyses identified that a platelet count < 100,000/μL (hazard ratio = 7.101, p = 0.0070) and base excess < -12 mmol/L (hazard ratio = 3.663, p = 0.0464) were independent predictive factors for hospital mortality in patients with colorectal necrosis. We established a novel prognostic score based on platelet count, creatine kinase, and base excess. Patients with a novel prognostic score ≥ 4 had significantly poorer survival rates than patients with a score ≤ 3 (0.0% vs. 73.4%, p < 0.001).

A platelet count < 100,000/μL and base excess < - 12 mmol/L are associated with a poor prognosis for patients with colorectal necrosis. This novel prognostic score may be a more accurate prognostic factor for patients with colorectal necrosis.