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Electricity- and hydrogen-driven energy system sector-coupling in net-zero CO2 emission pathways
Bob van der Zwaan1,2,3, Amir Fattahi4, Francesco Dalla Longa4
1TNO, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. bob.vanderzwaan@tno.nl.
Nature Communications
|February 5, 2025
Summary
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires significant scaling of renewable electricity and hydrogen (H2). Electrification is the most cost-effective decarbonization strategy, with direct hydrogen use playing a smaller, yet vital, role.
Area of Science:
- Energy Systems Analysis
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Renewable Energy Technologies
Background:
- Sector coupling using electricity and hydrogen is crucial for European greenhouse gas neutrality.
- Deep decarbonization pathways necessitate substantial increases in renewable electricity and hydrogen generation, primarily from wind and solar power.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the potential penetration of electricity and hydrogen in final energy consumption by 2050 under deep decarbonization scenarios.
- To evaluate the cost-efficiency of electrification versus direct hydrogen use for decarbonization across economic sectors.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a set of energy system and integrated assessment models.
- Applied jointly adopted deep decarbonization scenario assumptions.
- Analyzed projected shares of electricity and hydrogen in final energy consumption.
Main Results:
- Projected average shares of electricity and hydrogen in final energy consumption to reach approximately 60% and 6% by 2050, respectively.
- Demonstrated that electrification is the most cost-efficient decarbonization route across all economic sectors.
- Indicated that direct hydrogen (H2) use offers a smaller but essential contribution to deep decarbonization.
Conclusions:
- Model variance highlights uncertainties in deep decarbonization pathways, particularly concerning the role of hydrogen.
- Electrification is the primary driver for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
- Direct hydrogen application is a necessary component, albeit secondary to electrification, in the energy transition.
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