Toward Machine Learning Electrospray Ionization Sensitivity Prediction for Semiquantitative Lipidomics in Stem Cells

Specificity, sensitivity, and high metabolite coverage make mass spectrometry (MS) one of the most valuable tools in metabolomics and lipidomics. However, translation of metabolomics MS methods to multiyear studies conducted across multiple batches is limited by variability in electrospray ionization response, making batch-to-batch comparisons challenging. This limitation creates an artificial divide between nontargeted discovery work that is broad in scope but limited in terms of absolute quantitation ability and targeted work that is highly accurate but limited in scope due to the need for matched isotopically labeled standards. These issues are often observed in stem cell studies using metabolomic and lipidomic MS approaches, where patient recruitment can be a years-long process and samples become available in discrete batches every few months. To bridge this gap, we developed a machine learning model that predicts electrospray ionization sensitivity for lipid classes that have shown correlation with stem cell potency. Molecular descriptors derived from these lipids' chemical structures are used as model input to predict electrospray response, enabling quantitation by MS with moderate accuracy (semiquantitation). Model performance was evaluated via internal and external validation using cultured cells from various stem cell donors, achieving global percent errors of 40% and 20% for positive and negative electrospray ion modes, respectively. Although this accuracy is typically insufficient for traditional targeted lipidomics experiments, it is sufficient for semiquantitative estimation of lipid marker concentrations across batches without the need for specific chemical standards that many times are unavailable. Furthermore, the precision for model-predicted concentrations was 16.9% for the positive mode and 7.5% for the negative mode, indicating promise for data harmonization across batches. The set of molecular descriptors used by the models described here was able to yield higher accuracy than those previously published in the literature, showing high promise toward semiquantitative lipidomics.