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Federated learning based reference evapotranspiration estimation for distributed crop fields.

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Federated learning enhances Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) estimation across diverse locations. The Random Forest Regressor model achieved superior accuracy, outperforming local models for sustainable agriculture and water resource management.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Agricultural Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Accurate Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) is crucial for water resource management and sustainable agriculture.
  • Existing machine learning models for ETo estimation are often limited to specific geographical areas.
  • Centralized data approaches face challenges with privacy and data transfer limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a federated learning approach for estimating ETo across multiple locations with diverse weather conditions.
  • To evaluate the performance of different machine learning models (RFR, SVR, DTR) in a federated learning framework for ETo prediction.
  • To identify the key weather parameters influencing ETo estimation through feature importance analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Implemented a federated learning approach using weather data from three distinct geographical locations in Pakistan (2012-2022).
  • Trained and evaluated Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Decision Tree Regressor (DTR) models locally and globally.
  • Conducted feature importance analysis to understand the impact of weather parameters on model performance.

Main Results:

  • The federated learning model based on Random Forest Regressor (RFR) demonstrated superior performance, achieving R2 = 0.97%, RMSE = 0.44, MAE = 0.33 mm day-1, and MAPE = 8.18%.
  • The RFR federated model outperformed individual local machine learning models at each selected site.
  • Maximum temperature and wind speed were identified as the most influential factors for ETo prediction.

Conclusions:

  • Federated learning offers a generalized and privacy-preserving method for accurate ETo estimation across varied climatic conditions.
  • The RFR model within a federated learning framework is highly effective for regional ETo prediction.
  • Understanding feature importance aids in refining ETo estimation models for better water resource and agricultural management.