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Updated: May 29, 2025

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Assessing conflict likelihood and its severity at interconnected intersections: Insights from drone trajectory data.

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Summary

Proximity to signalized intersections impacts unsignalized intersection safety. Upstream traffic volume reduces downstream conflict risk, while angled conflicts and left-turn queues increase risk at unsignalized intersections.

Keywords:
Conflict risksDrone trajectoriesHierarchical modelingInterconnection intersectionStructure equation modeling

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Area of Science:

  • Traffic Engineering
  • Transportation Safety
  • Urban Planning

Background:

  • Unsignalized intersections present significant safety challenges due to numerous traffic conflicts.
  • Existing research often overlooks the influence of nearby signalized intersections on unsignalized intersection safety.
  • Traditional traffic flow data lack the granularity to capture short-term conditions contributing to conflicts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of proximity to signalized intersections on traffic conflicts at unsignalized intersections.
  • To analyze conflict probability and severity using high-resolution trajectory data.
  • To identify factors influencing conflict risks across different segments of unsignalized intersections.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized microscopic high-resolution trajectory data from the CitySim drone dataset.
  • Employed surrogate safety measures: time-to-collision (TTC) and predicted change in velocity post-collision (Delta-V).
  • Applied Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) for interconnected intersection analysis and hierarchical Joint Generalized Linear Mixed Models (JGLMM) for segment-specific factor identification.

Main Results:

  • Upstream traffic volume at signalized intersections significantly mitigates downstream conflict risks.
  • Angled conflicts in weaving sections increase in probability and severity with larger angles.
  • Conflict risk in right-turn lanes decreases with queue length, but increases in left-turn lanes.

Conclusions:

  • High-resolution trajectory data are crucial for detailed safety analysis at interconnected intersections.
  • Clear lane markings and advance signage for left-turn lanes are recommended countermeasures.
  • Understanding interactions between adjacent intersections enhances hierarchical safety assessments.