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Relationship between RSV-hospitalized children and meteorological factors: a time series analysis from 2017 to 2023

Shuying Wang1,2, Yifan Wang1,2, Yingxue Zou3

  • 1Department of Pulmonology, Tianjin Children's Hospital (Children's Hospital of Tianjin University), Machang Compus, 225 Machang Road, Hexi District, Tianjin, 300074, China.

Biomedical Engineering Online
|February 5, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Higher temperatures correlate with fewer infant hospitalizations for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This study analyzed RSV trends and weather in Tianjin, informing prevention strategies and resource allocation.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Health
  • Virology

Background:

  • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of infant hospitalizations globally.
  • RSV incidence shows seasonal patterns influenced by meteorological factors.
  • Understanding these patterns is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze RSV hospitalization seasonality in Tianjin.
  • To investigate the association between meteorological factors and RSV hospitalizations.
  • To inform RSV prevention and resource allocation strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 6222 children hospitalized with RSV.
  • Collection of meteorological data (temperature, pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation).
  • Application of seasonal ARIMA and Generalized Additive Models (GAM).

Main Results:

  • Seasonal ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,2)12 model accurately predicted RSV admissions.
  • A significant negative correlation was found between monthly average temperature and RSV hospitalizations.
  • Higher average temperatures were linked to decreased RSV hospitalizations.

Conclusions:

  • Meteorological factors significantly impact RSV hospital admissions.
  • Predictive models can enhance RSV prevention strategies and resource management.
  • Continued development of vaccines and therapeutics is essential for public health.
Abstract

Keywords:
GAM modelMeteorological factorsRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV)SARIMA model

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