Geography and Environment Shape Spatial Genetic Variation and Predict Climate Maladaptation Across Isolated and...

Assessing the evolutionary potential of rare species with limited migration amidst ongoing climate change requires an understanding of patterns of genetic variation and local adaptation. In contrast to the large distributions and population sizes of most pines, Pinus muricata (bishop pine) occurs in a few isolated populations along coastal western North America and is listed as threatened by the IUCN. To quantify how current genetic variation is influenced by distribution and environment, we generated reduced representation DNA sequencing data for most extant populations of P. muricata (12 locations, 7828 loci). We assessed geographic variation in differentiation and diversity and used genetic-environment association (GEA) analyses to characterise the contribution of environmental variables to local adaptation and genetic structure. Based on these inferences, we quantified genomic offset as a relative estimate of potential maladaptation under mild (SSP1-2.6) and severe (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios across 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Despite occurring in small, isolated populations, genetic diversity was not low in P. muricata. Population differentiation was, however, defined across a hierarchy of spatial scales, with stands generally forming genetically identifiable groups across latitude and environments. GEA analyses implicated temperature- and soil-related variables as most strongly contributing to local adaptation. Estimates of maladaptation to future climate varied non-linearly with latitude, increased with severity of projections and over time, and were predicted by increases in annual temperature. Our results suggest that isolation and local adaptation have shaped genetic variation among disjunct populations and that these factors may shape maladaptation risk under projected climate change.