Accuracy and clinical effectiveness of risk prediction tools for pressure injury occurrence: An umbrella review

Pressure injuries (PIs) pose a substantial healthcare burden and incur significant costs worldwide. Several risk prediction tools to allow timely implementation of preventive measures and a subsequent reduction in healthcare system burden are available and in use. The ability of risk prediction tools to correctly identify those at high risk of PI (prognostic accuracy) and to have a clinically significant impact on patient management and outcomes (effectiveness) is not clear. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness of risk prediction tools for PI and to identify gaps in the literature.

The umbrella review was conducted according to Cochrane guidance. Systematic reviews (SRs) evaluating the accuracy or clinical effectiveness of adult PI risk prediction tools in any clinical settings were eligible. Studies on paediatric tools, sensor-only tools, or staging/diagnosis of existing PIs were excluded. MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and EPISTEMONIKOS were searched (inception to June 2024) to identify relevant SRs, as well as Google Scholar (2013 to 2024) and reference lists. Methodological quality was assessed using adapted AMSTAR-2 criteria. Results were described narratively. We identified 26 SRs meeting all eligibility criteria with 19 SRs assessing prognostic accuracy and 11 assessing clinical effectiveness of risk prediction tools for PI (4 SRs assessed both aspects). The 19 SRs of prognostic accuracy evaluated 70 tools (39 scales and 31 machine learning (ML) models), with the Braden, Norton, Waterlow, Cubbin-Jackson scales (and modifications thereof) the most evaluated tools. Meta-analyses from a focused set of included SRs showed that the scales had sensitivities and specificities ranging from 53% to 97% and 46% to 84%, respectively. Only 2/19 (11%) SRs performed appropriate statistical synthesis and quality assessment. Two SRs assessing machine learning-based algorithms reported high prognostic accuracy estimates, but some of which were sourced from the same data within which the models were developed, leading to potentially overoptimistic results. Two randomised trials assessing the effect of PI risk assessment tools (within the full test-intervention-outcome pathway) on the incidence of PIs were identified from the 11 SRs of clinical effectiveness; both were included in a Cochrane SR and assessed as high risk of bias. Both trials found no evidence of an effect on PI incidence. Limitations included the use of the AMSTAR-2 criteria, which may have overly focused on reporting quality rather than methodological quality, compounded by the poor reporting quality of included SRs and that SRs were not excluded based on low AMSTAR-2 ratings (in order to provide a comprehensive overview). Additionally, diagnostic test accuracy principles, rather than prognostic modelling approaches were heavily relied upon, which do not account for the temporal nature of prediction.

Available systematic reviews suggest a lack of high-quality evidence for the accuracy of risk prediction tools for PI and limited reliable evidence for their use leading to a reduction in incidence of PI. Further research is needed to establish the clinical effectiveness of appropriately developed and validated risk prediction tools for PI.