Osteoarthritis Incidence Trends Globally, Regionally, and Nationally, 1990-2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Osteoarthritis (OA) contributes substantially to global disability. We analysed global and national OA incidence trends and associated factors.

Data obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study were used to examine 30-year OA incidence patterns globally and for 204 countries/territories. An age-period-cohort (APC) model determined annual percent changes, age-specific changes, and period/cohort effects.

From 1990 to 2019, global OA incidence rose by 21.3 million, with the highest cases in China, India, the United States, and Japan. Incidence was higher in women versus men and peaked at ages 20-24 years, though shifting towards middle-aged adults. The annual increase was 0.225% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.157, 0.293) and 0.158% (95% CI: 0.114, 0.201) in high and low socio-demographic index countries, respectively, with most countries showing increasing incidence. Disadvantageous incidence trends over time and birth cohorts occurred in all regions except middle-high index countries, which had the lowest increase and declining period effect after 2005.

OA represents an escalating public health burden, predominantly affecting middle-aged and elderly populations, and more women than men. Obesity and ageing are major drivers of rising OA incidence. Swiftly implementing policies to prevent modifiable risks and ensure proper treatment access is imperative to mitigate the impact of OA.