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  11. Interactions Between Climate Mean And Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

Eva Sinha1, Donghui Xu1, Kendalynn A Morris2

  • 1Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA.

Global Change Biology
|February 7, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change impacts agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation means and variability. Rising temperatures and extreme weather reduce crop yields and carbon storage, threatening food security.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • Agriculture is vital for global food supply and land use.
  • The distinct impacts of climate mean shifts versus variability on agroecosystems are not fully understood.
  • Understanding these impacts is crucial for predicting agricultural productivity and carbon cycling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To differentiate and quantify the effects of changing climate mean state versus variability on agroecosystem carbon and energy fluxes, and crop production.
  • To investigate the nonlinear interactions between changes in climate mean and variability.
  • To provide a foundation for predicting agroecosystem vulnerability to 21st-century climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized an advanced weather generator to separate climate mean and variability changes for temperature and precipitation.
Keywords:
agroecosystemclimate impactnonlinear

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  • Employed factorial-design simulations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM).
  • Simulated agricultural regions in the US Midwest under various climate change scenarios.

    • Main Results:

    • Increased temperature mean reduces stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, potentially shifting ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources.
    • Changes in temperature and precipitation means, individually and combined, significantly impact carbon fluxes, carbon pools, and crop yields.
    • Combined changes in temperature and precipitation means caused the largest reductions: -16% gross primary production, -35% vegetation carbon, and significant yield reductions for corn and soybean.

    Conclusions:

    • Climate mean changes and variability shifts have distinct and interacting effects on agroecosystems.
    • Agroecosystems exhibit nonlinear responses to combined changes in climate mean and variability.
    • This research enhances the understanding and prediction of agricultural system responses to future climate change.