What Lies Behind Mycotoxin Presence in Animal Feed? A Case Study^☆

This study investigates seasonal trends and correlations among different mycotoxins in animal feed, employing time series analysis and Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using LOESS (STL) to uncover patterns and relationships. Data collected from Food Fortress, covering 2014-2024, include feed for ruminants, pigs, and poultry. The analysis reveals that seasonality accounts for less than 15% of the variability in mycotoxin levels, suggesting a limited seasonal influence. High deoxynivalenol (DON) concentrations in ram feed were attributed to specific management practices, while persistent DON levels in pig and poultry feed highlight the need for enhanced interventions. A strong correlation between DON and zearalenone (ZEN) was identified in pig and poultry feed. Over the study period, aflatoxin levels exhibited a slight increase, potentially linked to evolving climatic conditions, whereas DON and ZEN levels showed a slight decline. Furthermore, an inverse correlation between aflatoxin and ochratoxin levels suggests competitive interactions among fungal species, such as Aspergillus and Penicillium. These findings provide valuable insights into the intricate interactions of seasonal factors, management practices, and fungal ecology shaping mycotoxin contamination in animal feed. The study emphasizes the need for advanced mitigation strategies, including predictive modeling and artificial intelligence, to monitor and manage mycotoxin risks effectively at the regional level, ensuring feed safety and quality in the face of evolving environmental and management challenges.