Dual-energy CT quantitative parameters for prediction of prognosis in patients with resectable rectal cancer

To determine whether quantitative parameters derived from dual-energy CT (DECT) could predict prognosis in patients with resectable rectal cancer (RC).

One hundred and thirty-four patients (recurrence/distant metastasis group, n = 36; non-metastasis/non-recurrence group, n = 98) with RC who underwent radical resection and DECT were retrospectively included. DECT quantitative parameters, including iodine concentration (IC), normalized iodine concentration (NIC), electron density (Rho), effective atomic number (Z_eff), dual-energy index (DEI), the slope of the spectral Hounsfield unit curve (λ_HU) on arterial and venous phase images. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to identify independent risk factors of prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the performance. Disease-free survival (DFS) curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Patients in the metastasis/recurrence group had higher Rho in arterial phase (A-Rho), NIC in venous phase (V-NIC), Rho in venous phase (V-Rho), Z_eff in venous phase (V-Z_eff), λ_HU in venous phase (V-λ_HU), pT stage, pN stage, serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen-199 levels and more frequent in extramural venous invasion than those in non-metastasis/non-recurrence group (all p < 0.05). V-NIC, V-λ_HU, and CEA were independent risk factors of recurrence/distant metastasis (all p < 0.05). The AUC of combined indicator integrating three independent risk factors achieved the best diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.900). In stratified survival analysis, patients with high V-NIC, V-λ_HU, and CEA had lower 3-year DFS than those with low V-NIC, V-λ_HU, and CEA.

Combining V-NIC, V-λ_HU, and CEA could be used to noninvasively predict prognosis in resectable RC.

Question TNM staging fails to accurately prognosticate; can quantitative parameters derived from dual-energy CT predict prognosis in patients with resectable rectal cancer? Findings Normalized iodine concentration (V-NIC) and the slope of the spectral Hounsfield unit curve in venous phase (V-λHU), and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are independent risk factors for recurrence/metastasis. Clinical relevance The combined indicator integrating V-NIC, V-λHU, and CEA could predict 3-year disease-free survival in patients with resectable rectal cancer and could aid in postoperative survival risk stratification to guide personalized treatment.