Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Risk Prediction Model for Polypoid Lesions of the Gallbladder

Area of Science:

• Gastroenterology
• Surgical Oncology
• Diagnostic Imaging

Background:

• Polypoid lesions of the gallbladder (PLG) are protrusions of the gallbladder wall, ranging from benign to malignant.
• Malignant PLG, though rare, has a poor prognosis, and treatment indications like cholecystectomy are debated.
• Accurate diagnosis and risk stratification are crucial for effective management of PLG.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate clinical prediction models for diagnosing polypoid lesions of the gallbladder (PLG).
• To identify risk factors for differentiating benign, malignant, and adenomatous PLG.
• To provide a reliable tool for guiding clinical diagnosis and treatment strategies for PLG.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of data from 461 patients with polypoid lesions of the gallbladder.
• Logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for PLG, malignant PLG, and adenomatous PLG.
• Development of clinical prediction models (A, B, C) and nomograms, validated using AUC, calibration, and DCA curves.

Main Results:

• Multivariate logistic regression identified key risk factors for PLG, malignant PLG, and adenomatous PLG.
• Developed clinical prediction models (A, B, C) with AUC values exceeding 0.7, demonstrating excellent predictive efficacy.
• Nomograms were created, and their reliability and validity were confirmed through calibration and DCA curves.

Conclusions:

• The developed models show significant predictive power for PLG, malignant PLG, and adenomatous PLG.
• These models can aid in the clinical diagnosis of PLG.
• The study provides a reliable foundation for optimizing treatment strategies for patients with PLG.