Water resource utilization and future supply-demand scenarios in energy cities of semi-arid regions

Analyzing the characteristics of water resource utilization and forecasting future supply-demand dynamics are of great practical significance for water resource planning and allocation. This study focuses on the water supply-demand challenges in energy cities located in semi-arid regions, using Qingyang City as a case study. The future water demand of various sectors was simulated and projected, and the supply-demand balance under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios was analyzed using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework combined with climate model data. This research addresses the gap in the existing literature concerning the analysis of water supply-demand structures in energy cities under climate change and provides scientific support for regional sustainable development. The results show that: (1) Over the past 20 years, water supply and utilization in Qingyang City have exhibited significant growth trends, with agricultural water use continuously increasing, industrial water use fluctuating, domestic water use remaining stable, and ecological water use growing significantly; (2) From 2024 to 2035, the water demand of various sectors is projected to change substantially, with agricultural and ecological water use being highly sensitive to scenario configurations; (3) Under high economic growth scenarios, Qingyang City is likely to face severe water shortages.