Trends and projections of hypertensive heart disease burden in China: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a significant public health concern in China. We intend to provide an updated estimate of the burden of HHD in China between 1990 and 2030.

HHD prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 databases. Temporal trends of HHD from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression models, and projections through 2030 were estimated by Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

In 2020, an estimated 334,695 newly prevalent cases and 13,196 deaths due to HHD occurred in China. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized rate of prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR) and DALYs (ASDR) showed a decreasing trend. The behavior-related risk, diet risk and excessive BMI were the most common reasons of death in HHD. According to our prediction, ASMRs and ASDRs will continue to decrease from 2020 to 2030. However, ASPRs will have a moderate rise.

HHD continues to pose a significant threat to public health in China. To achieve the Healthy China 2030 objective, a tailored approach involving comprehensive strategies is essential. These strategies should include, but are not limited to, enhancing public awareness about hypertension through educational campaigns, improving access to healthcare services for early diagnosis and treatment, implementing policies to promote healthy lifestyles, such as regular physical activity and a balanced diet, and strengthening the surveillance and monitoring systems to track the prevalence and impact of HHD over time.