Trends in disease burden of ADHD in China from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD analysis

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has a significant impact on individual health and society. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of ADHD in China from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to provide a basis for the formulation of corresponding prevention and control strategies by the government.

Using data from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database, we described the changes in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in China from 1990 to 2019. An autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the disease burden from 2020 to 2029.

From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence and DALY rates of ADHD all showed an upward trend, with standardized rates for males significantly higher than those for females. The age group of 5 to 9 years showed a higher incidence. Both prevalence and DALY rates peaked at ages 10 to 14, gradually declining with increasing age, although ADHD continues to impose a certain disease burden on adults. Prediction results indicate a slow decline in the standardized incidence rate of ADHD in China from 2020 to 2029, with standardized prevalence and standardized DALY rates showing a gradual increase from 2020 to 2025, followed by a decrease, potentially reaching 112.28/100 000, 2 070.03/100 000, and 25.41/100 000 by 2 029, respectively.

ADHD is a condition that spans the entire lifespan, yet current recognition, diagnosis, and treatment of adult ADHD remain insufficient. It is recommended to focus on the early diagnosis and treatment of adult ADHD based on existing disease monitoring to mitigate the impact of the disease on patients and society.