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Does enumerating undocumented residents in the US census affect congressional apportionment?
John Robert Warren1, Robert E Warren2
1Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
PNAS Nexus
|February 12, 2025
Summary
Excluding undocumented residents from US census data for congressional apportionment would minimally impact House seats and Electoral College votes. This change would not affect party control of the House or presidential election outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Demography
- Public Policy
Background:
- Debates exist regarding the inclusion of undocumented residents in US census data for congressional apportionment.
- Arguments suggest excluding them could shift political power between states and parties.
- Previous analyses projecting these impacts have been inaccurate.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically examine whether including undocumented residents in US census data alters political party representation in the House of Representatives.
- To determine if including undocumented residents impacts presidential Electoral College votes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized annual state-level estimates of the undocumented resident population from 1980 to the present.
- Analyzed the consequences of including undocumented residents in official apportionment data across multiple census cycles.
- Simulated apportionment scenarios excluding undocumented residents to assess potential shifts in representation.
Main Results:
- Excluding undocumented residents from apportionment data would have shifted no more than two House seats and three Electoral College votes between political parties in any given year since 1980.
- These minimal shifts would not have influenced party control of the House of Representatives.
- The exclusion of undocumented residents would not have altered the outcomes of presidential elections.
Conclusions:
- The inclusion of undocumented residents in US census data for apportionment has a negligible effect on political party representation and Electoral College outcomes.
- Current debates over excluding undocumented residents from apportionment are not supported by empirical evidence of significant political impact.
- Policy decisions regarding census data inclusion should consider the minimal influence on electoral representation.
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