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Updated: May 28, 2025

Using Phylogenetic Analysis to Investigate Eukaryotic Gene Origin
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Bayesian mixture models for phylogenetic source attribution from consensus sequences and time since infection

Alexandra Blenkinsop1, Lysandros Sofocleous1, Francesco Di Lauro2

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Statistical Methods in Medical Research
|February 12, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Integrating pathogen genomics with infection time estimates improves identification of infectious disease transmission sources. This approach enhances accuracy in understanding population-level transmission networks, particularly for viruses with rapid evolution.

Keywords:
HIV preventionevolutionary clockphylodynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Genomic Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Pathogen genomic data is crucial for reconstructing infectious disease transmission events.
  • Existing methods often neglect the time since pathogen variant divergence, limiting accuracy for rapidly evolving viruses.
  • Incorporating clinical biomarkers for time since infection estimates can refine transmission pair identification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a Bayesian mixture model that integrates phylogenetic data with time since infection estimates.
  • To improve the classification of potential transmission pairs by accounting for evolutionary rates and clinical data.
  • To enhance the accuracy of identifying population-level transmission sources.

Main Methods:

  • Development of Bayesian mixture models incorporating an evolutionary clock.
  • Inclusion of mixed effects or covariate random functions to model mixing weights.
  • Application of the model to estimate age-specific sources of HIV infection in men who have sex with men networks.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model accurately classifies potential transmission pairs by combining phylogenetic and time-since-infection data.
  • Population-level transmission source inferences are more accurate than using only phylogenetic data.
  • Age-specific sources of HIV infection were estimated in a key population network.

Conclusions:

  • Time since infection estimates provide valuable data for characterizing transmission sources.
  • Multi-dimensional mixture models offer a robust framework for phylogenetic source attribution.
  • The approach enhances understanding of transmission dynamics in infectious diseases.