A Longitudinal Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome

Background/Objectives: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of conditions including central obesity, high blood pressure, high glucose levels, and abnormal triglycerides and cholesterol, which together increase the chances of heart disease, diabetes, and even death. The rates of MetS are different around the world, with 20-30% in Europe and 21.8-23.9% in Kazakhstan. Because MetS changes over time, it is important to study the dynamics of their components to improve prevention and treatments. This work aims to obtain the incidence of MetS and to evaluate the specific components associated with the emergence of new MetS cases in this population. Methods: This is a longitudinal study with a 10-year follow-up in Turkestan city between 2012 and 2024. Information was collected through physical exams, blood tests, and anthropometric measurements. Logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were used to find which factors increase the incidence of MetS. Results: Among 434 participants analyzed (78.8% women, and mean age 40.87, 66% < 2 MetS components, 20% had MetS blood pressure, and 65.9% had MetS waist circumference), the incidence of MetS at follow-up was 40%. The key risk factors for newly diagnosed MetS included elevated blood pressure and increased waist circumference. Multivariate analyses highlighted these components as the strongest predictors of MetS, with significant associations observed for participants with two or more MetS components at baseline. Conclusions: Elevated blood pressure and central obesity were identified as pivotal contributors to MetS progression. Given the rising prevalence of Mets and its implications, these results show the need to start treatment and check these risks early to prevent serious health problems.